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Modeling and Estimating of Load Demand of Electricity Generated from Hydroelectric Power Plants in Turkey using Machine Learning MethodsDURSUN, B.   , AYDIN, F. , ZONTUL, M. , SENER, S. |
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Author keywords
electricity load forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron, rule based learning, time series prediction
References keywords
learning(18), machine(14), artificial(11), intelligence(10), neural(6), model(6), power(5), load(5), classification(5), hall(4)
Blue keywords are present in both the references section and the paper title.
About this article
Date of Publication: 2014-02-28
Volume 14, Issue 1, Year 2014, On page(s): 121 - 132
ISSN: 1582-7445, e-ISSN: 1844-7600
Digital Object Identifier: 10.4316/AECE.2014.01019
Web of Science Accession Number: 000332062300019
SCOPUS ID: 84894610981
Abstract
In this study, the electricity load demand, between 2012 and 2021, has been estimated using the load demand of the electricity generated from hydroelectric power plants in Turkey between 1970 and 2011. Among machine learning algorithms, Multilayer Perceptron, Locally Weighted Learning, Additive Regression, M5Rules and ZeroR classifiers are used to estimate the electricity load demand. Among them, M5Rules and Multilayer Perceptron classifiers are observed to have better performance than the others. ZeroR classifier is a kind of majority classifier used to compare the performances of other classifiers. Locally Weighted Learning and Additive Regression classifiers are Meta classifiers. In the training period conducted by Locally Weighted Learning and Additive Regression classifiers, when Multilayer Perceptron and M5Rules classifiers are chosen respectively, it is possible to obtain models with the highest performance. As a result of the experiments performed using M5Rules and Multilayer Perceptron classifiers, correlation coefficient values of 0.948 and 0.9933 are obtained respectively. And, Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error value of Multilayer Perceptron classifier are closer to zero than that of M5Rules classifier. Therefore, it can be said the model performed by Multilayer Perceptron classifier has the best performance compared to the models of other classifiers. |
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Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Romania
All rights reserved: Advances in Electrical and Computer Engineering is a registered trademark of the Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, photocopied, recorded or archived, without the written permission from the Editor. When authors submit their papers for publication, they agree that the copyright for their article be transferred to the Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Romania, if and only if the articles are accepted for publication. The copyright covers the exclusive rights to reproduce and distribute the article, including reprints and translations.
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