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Improving Power System Risk Evaluation Method Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Gaussian Mixture MethodMOUSAVI, O. A.   , FARASHBASHI-ASTANEH, M. S. , GHAREHPETIAN, G. B. |
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Author keywords
Monte Carlo Simulation, Gaussian Mixture Method, linear programming, DC load flow, probability density function
References keywords
power(18), systems(12), system(10), dobson(8), failure(7), cascading(7), model(6), blackouts(6), reliability(5), methods(5)
Blue keywords are present in both the references section and the paper title.
About this article
Date of Publication: 2009-06-02
Volume 9, Issue 2, Year 2009, On page(s): 38 - 44
ISSN: 1582-7445, e-ISSN: 1844-7600
Digital Object Identifier: 10.4316/AECE.2009.02007
Web of Science Accession Number: 000268723600007
SCOPUS ID: 70349167393
Abstract
The analysis of the risk of partial and total blackouts has a crucial role to determine safe limits in power system design, operation and upgrade. Due to huge cost of blackouts, it is very important to improve risk assessment methods. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was used to analyze the risk and Gaussian Mixture Method (GMM) has been used to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of the load curtailment, in order to improve the power system risk assessment method. In this improved method, PDF and a suggested index have been used to analyze the risk of loss of load. The effect of considering the number of generation units of power plants in the risk analysis has been studied too. The improved risk assessment method has been applied to IEEE 118 bus and the network of Khorasan Regional Electric Company (KREC) and the PDF of the load curtailment has been determined for both systems. The effect of various network loadings, transmission unavailability, transmission capacity and generation unavailability conditions on blackout risk has been investigated too. |
| References | | | Cited By «-- Click to see who has cited this paper |
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Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Romania
All rights reserved: Advances in Electrical and Computer Engineering is a registered trademark of the Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, photocopied, recorded or archived, without the written permission from the Editor. When authors submit their papers for publication, they agree that the copyright for their article be transferred to the Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Romania, if and only if the articles are accepted for publication. The copyright covers the exclusive rights to reproduce and distribute the article, including reprints and translations.
Permission for other use: The copyright owner's consent does not extend to copying for general distribution, for promotion, for creating new works, or for resale. Specific written permission must be obtained from the Editor for such copying. Direct linking to files hosted on this website is strictly prohibited.
Disclaimer: Whilst every effort is made by the publishers and editorial board to see that no inaccurate or misleading data, opinions or statements appear in this journal, they wish to make it clear that all information and opinions formulated in the articles, as well as linguistic accuracy, are the sole responsibility of the author.
